Long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment of El Chichón Volcano (Mexico) through Bayesian inference     

Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia  Miguel A.  Hernández-Urbina  Karina  Ramos-Hernández  Silvia G. 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(1):1011-1035

Natural Hazards - The 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano constitutes the worst volcanic disaster in Mexico producing more than 2000 fatalities, thousands of displaced people and severe...  相似文献   

Methodological challenges to confirmatory latent variable models of social vulnerability     

Goodman  Zachary T.  Stamatis  Caitlin A.  Stoler  Justin  Emrich  Christopher T.  Llabre  Maria M. 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(3):2731-2749

Natural Hazards - Socially vulnerable communities experience disproportionately negative outcomes following natural disasters and underscoring a need for well-validated measures to identify those...  相似文献   

Hydrological basis of the Devils Lake,North Dakota (USA), terminal lake flood disaster     

Todhunter  P. E. 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(3):2797-2824

Devils Lake, a terminal lake in northeast North Dakota (USA), has experienced catastrophic flooding since 1993. From January 31, 1993, to December 31, 2014, lake level rose from 433.62 to 442.44 m, lake area expanded from 179.9 to 653.5 km², and lake volume increased from 0.70 to 3.80 km³. More than $1 billion ($USD) has been spent in government payments to mitigate direct, primary, tangible flood damages. This paper provides a case study of the hydrological basis of the Devils Lake flood disaster. The unique geomorphic setting, paleoclimatic record, and hydroclimatic conditions of the region are summarized, and a wide range of hydroclimatic data is examined to provide a broad understanding of the physical basis of the flood disaster. The primary cause of the disaster was a transition to a sustained wetter climate that resulted in a dramatic response in basin hydrological variables in 1993. The transition from a long-term dry period to a long-term wet period caused the lake water budget to begin to change from an atmosphere-controlled water budget dominated by precipitation input to an amplifier lake water budget dominated by surface runoff input to the lake. Other important hydrological factors include a nonlinear precipitation–runoff relationship following the long-term drought, fill-spill and fill-merge hydrological behavior that is characteristic of wetland complexes, an increase in the lake area-to-basin area ratio, and the critical role of frozen soils in controlling infiltration and runoff production of spring snowmelt. Engineering works to manage lake volume through two outlets have reduced, but not entirely eliminated, future flood risk.

  相似文献   

Geologic hazards of the Ocoña river valley,Peru and the influence of small-scale mining     

Santi  P.  Manning  J.  Zhou  W.  Meza  P.  Colque  P. 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(3):2679-2700

Natural Hazards - The Ocoña River Valley, in the Arequipa Department in southern Peru, extends over 150 km from the Pacific coast to its headwaters in the Andes Mountains. While...  相似文献   

Basin-Scale 3D Sedimentary Modelling: An Approach to Subdivide Baltic Sea Onshore Sediments for Land use and Construction     

Ojala  Antti E. K.  Virtasalo  Joonas J.  Lindsberg  Elina  Markovaara-Koivisto  Mira 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2021,39(7):4855-4876

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Understanding the local stratigraphy and geometry of sediment units is necessary for successful 3D modelling and the prediction of ground behaviour and...  相似文献   

Improvement in Prediction of Slope Stability & Relative Importance Factors Using ANN     

Marrapu  Balendra M.  Kukunuri  Anjana  Jakka  Ravi S. 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2021,39(8):5879-5894

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Evaluation of slope stability using conventional limit equilibrium methods is very time consuming and repetitive, while the use of simplified approaches...  相似文献   

Fatigue-Damage Evolution Characteristics of Interbeded Marble Subjected to Dynamic Uniaxial Cyclic Loads     

Wang  Y.  Gao  S. H.  Han  J. Q. 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2021,39(2):855-870

In this work, uniaxial fatigue tests combined with post-test X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning were conducted on marble samples with different interbed orientations, in order to reveal the anisotropic damage evolution characteristics during rock failure. The dynamic elastic modulus, damping ratio, fatigue deformation, damage evolution, accumulative damage modeling and crack pattern were systematically analyzed. The testing results indicate that the interbed structure in marble affects the damage evolution and the associated dynamic mechanical behaviors. The damage curve in “S” style indicates three-stage trend, namely, initial damage stage, steady damage stage and the accelerated damage stage. The damage index during cyclic deformation for marble presents obvious discrepancy. In addition, a fatigue damage prediction models was employed numerically as double-term power equations based on the experimental data. It is found that the selected damage model is suitable in modeling the rapid damage growth in the early and final stage of rock fatigue lifetime. Moreover, post-test CT scanning further reveals the anisotropic damage characteristics of marble, the crack pattern in the fractured sample is controlled by the interbed structure. What is more, the most striking founding is that the fracture degree is in consistent with the damage accumulation within the steady damage stage. Through a series of damage mechanical behavior analysis, the internal mechanism of the effect of interbed orientation on damage evolution of marble is firstly documented.

  相似文献   

On the Use of Bench Construction to Improve the Stability of Unsaturated Waste Rock Piles     

Maknoon  M.  Aubertin  M. 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2021,39(2):1425-1449

This paper presents the main results from an investigation into the slope stability of unsaturated waste rock piles with various configurations and surface recharge conditions. The analyses first consider waste rock piles with different internal and external configurations, under steady-state conditions to evaluate the effect of the pile geometry on the factor of safety. Transient analyses are then conducted to evaluate the influence of rainfalls of different intensities and durations. For six waste rock pile configurations, the results illustrate how the external geometry of the pile influences the factor of safety. The results presented here show how surface infiltration (water recharge), external geometry, and internal pile features affect unsaturated water flow, pore water pressure (matric suction), and material strength, which in turn influence slope stability. Despite the relatively large imposed recharges, following major precipitation events, the results indicate that the decrease of the factor of safety FS is relatively small when compared with the effect of other influential factors. The results also demonstrate that the external geometry of the waste rock pile has the most significant impact on the factor of safety, indicating that pile stability can be controlled with an appropriate design. Waste rock piles with a uniform slope (single bench) should be avoided as this construction method leads to the lowest factor of safety. The overall results clearly demonstrate that the best way to improve the stability of waste rock piles is to use a design and construction method with benches of limited size.

  相似文献   

内蒙古鄂尔多斯高原古冰缘遗迹科学考察研究进展     

何瑞霞  金会军  蒋观利  张泽  陈雪梅  Raul David SERBAN  Mihaela SERBAN  Jef VANDENBERGHE  Valentin V.SPEKTOR  Hugh M.FRENCH 《冰川冻土》2021,43(1):263-273

冰缘遗迹（特别是冷生楔形构造及融冻褶皱）是重建古气候及第四纪晚期多年冻土环境的重要证据。内蒙古鄂尔多斯高原是我国北方地区冰缘现象最为发育的地区之一。为准确了解鄂尔多斯高原冰缘遗迹类型及其分布特征、区域冻土演化历史等,中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院和荷兰自由大学共同组成科研小组,于2018年5—6月组织了“鄂尔多斯高原冰缘遗迹科学考察”。考察区域涉及靖边—城川—乌审旗—鄂尔多斯东胜区一带约12 000 km²的范围。考察内容主要包括鄂尔多斯高原冰缘遗迹类型及特征、分布区域、各类型冰缘遗迹所指示的气候条件的初步推断等。结果表明：冻融褶皱和冷生楔体构造是鄂尔多斯高原主要存在的两大类冰缘遗迹。基于本次考察中关于冰缘遗迹的分布与特征等新发现,并综合前人研究成果,初步推断：在气温极低、多年冻土非常发育的时段,有利于形成各类冷生楔状构造,如冰楔假形和大型原生砂楔等;在气候转暖、多年冻土退化,但还没有全部融化完阶段,可能形成融冻褶皱;区域性大面积分布和成群出现的融冻褶皱一般反映较暖气候环境下,多年冻土层上部已退化到一定程度。基于光释光（OSL）年代测试结果,结合冰缘遗迹的特征及其所指示的古气候环境,初步重建了鄂尔多斯5万年以来的冻土环境变化序列。区内多年冻土在多年冻土最大期（LPM,25~19 ka BP）时最发育,以大面积连续多年冻土为主;之后,随气温转暖,总趋势呈退化状态,多年冻土分布逐渐变为片状→岛状→零星斑状,直至现今全部融完变为深季节冻土区。  相似文献   

Elucidating hydrological complexity and climate-influenced diagenesis during the early Carboniferous of South Wales     

N.J. Hogancamp  V.P. Wright 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2021,132(1):93-101

A revised age provided by conodonts from the Gilwern Oolite of the Clydach area of South Wales allows a clearer understanding of the palaeohydrology, palaeoclimatic history and diagenesis of previously correlated oolitic units. Earlier uncertainty over the apparent sub-regional differences in climate during the early Visean (Chadian—Arundian) lowstand is resolved. Previously a humid interval evidenced by prominent palaeo-epikarst capping the Gilwern Oolite along the northern outcrops of the South Wales synclinorium, was not recognized in what were regarded as correlative outcrops in the Chadian Gully Oolite in the southern part of the synclinorium. Conodont dating now shows that the Gilwern Oolite is much older (Courceyan) than the Chadian Gully Oolite, and during the prolonged exposure of the former there was an interval of weathering under a humid climate. This also explains the contrast between the diagenesis seen between the Gilwern and Gully oolites, which are no longer seen as correlatives.  相似文献